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The first Budget from a Labour government since March 2010, and the first ever from a female Chancellor, proved to be the defining event that had been widely anticipated. From the moment in late July when Rachel Reeves unveiled her “£22 billion black hole” and announced means-testing for the winter fuel payment, it was clear her Budget premiere would be a challenging one for both the government and the governed.

As Budget Day neared, talk of the black hole was replaced by a steady flow of rumours about tax increases and also, to a lesser extent spending cuts, totalling as much as £40 billion. In addition, there were suggestions that government borrowing – already overshooting the March 2024 Budget projections by around £7 billion – would rise by £20 billion to fund NHS and infrastructure projects.

In the event, the Chancellor delivered tax increases amounting to £41 billion by 2029/30. By far the largest element of this was the expected rise in employer’s national insurance contributions (NICs). The 1.2 percentage point rate increase, combined with a £4,100 cut in the secondary threshold will yield nearly £25 billion a year by 2028/29. At that level it more than counters the
cost of the cuts to employee and self-employed NICs introduced by Jeremy Hunt.

Other significant tax increases included higher capital gains tax rates and a future reduction in inheritance tax business and agricultural reliefs. Despite the additional revenue, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) projects that increased spending will mean that borrowing will still be over £70 billion in 2029/30. Not without reason does the OBR say, “…this Budget delivers a large, sustained increase in spending, taxation, and borrowing”.

Read the full statement here.

Jeremy Hunt’s second Autumn Statement was set against a much less financially turbulent background than his first.  However, politics still loomed large with a likely election in the next 12 months prompting calls for tax cuts from within the Conservative party. Until recently the Chancellor had attempted to stall such demands with warnings of “difficult decisions” on the public finances owing to a worsened fiscal outlook since his Spring Budget. One reason that he highlighted for the deterioration was the sharply increased cost of government borrowing.

Nevertheless, the Chancellor, who had argued only two months ago that tax cuts were “virtually impossible”, appears to have had a change of heart. Echoing the Prime Minister, Mr Hunt suggested that the achievement of halving inflation in 2023 marked an economic inflexion point that permitted a new policy approach.

The outcome was an Autumn Statement that had been initially trailed as focusing on longer-term issues, but which prioritised short-term tax cuts over maintaining expenditure in later years.
On the long term front, the Chancellor confirmed as expected that ‘full expensing’ of corporate investment in plant and machinery would be made permanent at a cost of £10.7 billion a year by 2027/28.  The most headline-grabbing moves were cuts to national insurance.

Some of the rumours, such as IHT reform, did not come to fruition, but there is still a chance – the Spring Budget is now less than four months away.

Read the full statement here